Grey Belt vs Green Belt – Why We Won’t Be Seeing Quick Results

Will Labour’s focus on the Grey Belt as an instrument to boost housing delivery really work? For a quick explainer of the terms, Grey Belt and Green Belt, check out the article we published last week introducing the topic. In this follow-up article, WWA’s Planning Director Ifti Maniar – BArch MA MSc MRTPIsets out some of the more technical details of how this planning policy will play out.

Understanding the Green Belt (GB) policy, its evolution, and how it aligns with current needs is the first step in engaging with the proposed changes. However, the purpose of this piece isn’t to debate whether the current GB policy is fit for purpose. Instead, we want to explore in which regions the Government’s new concept of ‘relabelling’ some Green Belt land as ‘Grey Belt’ could alleviate housing pressures and increase sustainable housing options.

Green Belt Stats to Regale Your Dinner Guests With…

The idea of the Green Belt in the public consciousness is quite different from how it is defined in technical terms. It is up to you whether the following stats make for a scintillating dinner discussion but… did you know that England has 15 Green Belts (GB) covering approximately 1.6 million hectares, representing around 12.6% of the country’s total land area? The concept of the Green Belt isn’t new; it was first coined by Octavia Hill in 1875 to describe a ring of countryside meant to resist urbanisation, and it became a formal policy in the 1940s. The primary aim of GB policy is to prevent urban sprawl by maintaining open land around cities and towns.

Over the past 70 years, additional layers of designations have been added to the land within the Green Belt. So much of the land within the GB is protected under more than one form of designation. Although we won’t cover every type here, these stats help highlight the overlap of different designations:

Approximately 68,686 hectares of Green Belt land are registered as Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs).
8,490 Ha of National Nature Reserve (9% of NNR area)
48 new Local Nature Reserves (LNRs) have been created in the Green Belt between 2009 and 2015.
34% of Community Forest land is within Green Belts, covering 32% of all Green Belts.
65.7% of Green Belt land is currently used for agriculture, and 53% of this land is subject to agri-environment schemes funded by Natural England.
9.1% of the Green Belt (147,187 hectares) overlaps with Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB), compared to 16% of the total AONB area in England

Source: England Green Belts fact sheets prepared by CPRE

These statistics illustrate that GB policy is not just a single layer of designation preventing urban sprawl, but that it is rather a complex overlapping of multiple layers that play a significant role in creating sustainable development. Local plans and policies will play a crucial role in shaping a future vision for the multifunctional use of Green Belts. In our opinion, identifying the ideal ‘Grey Belt’ within this multi-layered GB land is far from straightforward and is the first major hurdle to navigate.

Planning consultancies all over England will soon be testing their Local Authority’s interpretation of this definition by bringing forward many previously unviable sites situated within the Green Belt and by making representations throughout the development of Local Plans. Perhaps this conjures an image of Green Belt policy suffering death by a thousand cuts, giving way to a development free-for-all. In reality, each decision will be debated locally, and it will take some time for useful case studies to play out with enough regularity and predictability that developers are prepared to invest en masse.

So is The Green Belt Shrinking Then?

That depends on where you are in the country. The GB grew by 8.6 km² between March 2022 and March 2023 because of local planning authorities amending the extent of their land designated as GB. In previous years, however, the extent of the GB had reduced by an average of 24 km²per year because of this type of change in designation. So there is some truth in the ‘NIMBY-sphere’s’ eternal assertion that the GB is under attack. Changes in the estimated size of the GB are mostly due to LPAs adopting new plans that alter the area of that authority’s GB. Overall, although there have been some variations, GB policies have largely protected the land and remained unchanged over the past 20 years. The distribution of GB land by region in England is, however, not evenly spread, as evidenced in the table.

Comparing 2003 to 2023, Green Belt areas have grown in the Southwest and Northwest while decreasing in other regions. The most significant pressure on GB land is in the East, London, and Southeast regions, where Green Belt areas have reduced by approximately 8.5% over the past 20 years.

Someone Fired a Starting Gun… When Will The Race Actually Start?

Bang—the Labour manifesto sounded the start but we are unlikely to see the runners hit the tarmac for a while. The new government agenda emphasises that brownfield sites and poor-quality areas within the Green Belt— referred to as the ‘Grey Belt’—should be prioritised for development. Releasing suitable Green Belt edges for housing could unlock opportunities for sustainable, well-planned communities. Particularly in the East, London, and Southeast regions where housing need is highest.

To get the race truly underway and up to jogging pace, publishing detailed guidance on the ‘Grey Belt’ will be crucial. This must include how parcels or areas are sized, the appraisal process, and the interpretation of purposes. It is easier to imagine that smaller sites will be more palatable for quick decision-making and that sizeable areas that could support a new town, for instance, are very unlikely to come forward through this policy change until more modest precedents are set and proven successful.

We did promise not to debate (in this article) whether existing GB policy and related planning reforms are fit for purpose in solving the housing crisis; however, we can point out that they are very unlikely to inspire/facilitate a generation of new towns. Development, on such a scale, we think, would be the most direct way to provide much-needed housing. The sort of long-term planning and investment that would be needed for a new town is just not possible within the time constraints of a single term of government. A proven track record in delivering the manifesto pledge of increasing housing supply may improve Labour’s chances of re-election, whereby longer-term thinking could be part of the vision. As a result, the GB policy reforms are geared towards shorter-term aggregated gains of smaller sites across the regions.

Seeking a Different Perspective…

When we speak to each of our clients in the housing supply chain, whether housing associations, speculative developers, or one-off self-builders, Labour’s planning reforms affect them in vastly different and nuanced ways. Our planning team has significant experience promoting and securing planning permission within the Green Belt and finding opportunities for ‘Grey Belt’. We recently secured permission for 25 homes in the Green Belt, which you can read about on our LinkedIn page post. We are keen to share our experience with new clients and hear your perspectives, so if you require expert planning advice, please get in touch.

In the next article, WWA’s Director of Urban Design, Johnathan Headland, will share his perspective after years of experience working client-side for a major housebuilder. Johnathan’s article weaves together a tale of UK housing history, with some optimistic visioning for the future of housing delivery, the prosperity of the nation, and future generations chasing the dream of home ownership.

Written by Ifti Maniar, Director of Planning