Follow the Red Route to the Grey Belt

Since the general election, we have read our fair share of articles and insights on the current NPPF (National Planning Policy Framework) consultation. However, the true potential of Labour’s reframing of housing policy for England still remains unclear in public and professional consensus. Last week, Director of Town Planning Ifti Maniar, shared his view on the topic with Urban Design Director Johnathan Headland penning his own perspective below. Before his directorship at WWA, Johnathan worked client-side at a major housebuilder. This experience brings a balance to Johnathan’s insight through an understanding of the realpolitik, as well as an academic view.

An ambition of the Labour Manifesto, to reframe housing as an engine for economic growth, is a laudable one. In recent times, and, especially towards the end of the last parliament the Housing Crisis felt ignored, its pathway to solution littered with unappealing political trade-offs, adding to the sense of inevitability that the UK was transitioning away from a generation of homeowners to something much more transitory. It is this trade-off or balance, which is outlined well in the previous article, Grey Belt vs Green Belt – Why We won’t Be Seeing Quick Results, that I feel could be the key to success.

For too long our politics around housing has been a binary one, daring to suggest that it is possible to maintain the purpose and functionality of the green belt whilst at the same time managing a process of selected release for much-needed, housing, commercial, and associated infrastructure delivery, is a good first step. Seeking to achieve universal coverage of Local Plans by the end of this parliament is another. One thing is for sure, neither will be easy but taking these first steps is encouraging one away from stagnation.

Fun fact – Only 1/3 of Local Plans in England are up to date and less than 5 years old, similarly nearly 1/3 of Local Plans are at least 10 years old with some being up to 30 years old. This is a staggering fact given ours is a plan-led system! And little wonder we are losing a new generation of opportunity. Data source: Planning Inspectorate ‘Local Plan: Monitoring Progress

With this upbeat agenda ringing in my ears, it made me think about how the journey to 300k homes a year could manifest under this new regime. First, it is important to understand just how ambitious the 300k a year target is. On a five-year average England has built 210k homes a year in the recent past, this does account for both the initial impacts of COVID-19 but also the manic post-Covid resurgence in pent-up demand- as such, I consider it a fair representation of our current ability. Overseeing five consecutive years in which 300k+ DPA (dwellings per annum) are completed would be without modern precedent. The last time 300k DPA was achieved was 1969-70, under Labour’s Harold Wilson. What then, can Labour dust off from Mr Wilson’s playbook?

The Elephant in the Room is Affordable Housing

The true story of the Housing Crisis is not of private sector failure but of public sector direct provision falling off a cliff. Back in 1969/70 public sector direct provision, in the form of local authority housing, equated to around half of all new housing completions. A step change in provision such as this would be transformational not only in achieving our much-maligned target but in terms of its impact on market dynamics generally and society as a whole.

You don’t have to look far back into our collective past for a time when council housing was seen as a golden opportunity, rather than a choice of last resort. The is a direct correlation between the rise of stigma around affordable housing and its diminished contribution to the national housing supply. The re-establishment of mainstay public sector housing as an essential part of our housing supply puzzle also offers a natural competitor to private sector provision and it is market forces that hold the key to unlocking one elusive area of debate, that of beauty.

A meaningful competitor to that of private sector housing provisioning has the opportunity to reshape the whole market, with a renewed focus on design quality front and centre of a burgeoning public housing supply- delivery of 90k DPA would naturally incentivise a more holistic focus on design from the private sector. It’s not just design quality that can be leveraged as part of this change, the opportunity of a new social contract with high-quality housing available to a broader range of society opens exciting new routes to home ownership which seek to resolve the disparity between wage growth and house price inflation for good. Imagine a new closed-loop Right to Buy deal whereby the dynamics of home ownership change allowing all future proceeds from the sale of public sector housing to go into new provision and a well-resourced path to the opportunity of home ownership is realised for the next generation.

Labour’s Red Route to Reform…

It is no coincidence that the starting gun on the tie between economic prosperity and the opportunity for development was fired by our new Chancellor during the first days of this Labour Government. With the date for the Autumn Statement set for the 30 October we shall have to wait to see if this exciting potentiality will finally be realised. Could this statement set out a red route to unlock the Grey Belt? We look forward to updating you with our view soon after the statement. Stay tuned and follow us on LinkedIn for more town planning and urban design thought leadership.

When we speak to each of our clients in the housing supply chain, whether housing associations, speculative developers, or one-off self-builders, the coming reforms affect them in vastly different and nuanced ways. We are deep in discussions with our repeat clients advising how to be poised to take commercial advantage of the coming changes. We are keen to share our experience with new and future clients and to hear your perspectives. If you need an expert planning council… get in touch 0123 552 3139.